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 China\'s task: Avoid post-Olympics slowdown
发贴日期: 2008-08-09   [ 2人评论过 ]


  引用:
    By Kevin Voigt
For CNN

HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- Once the gold medals leave Beijing, will China's economy remain gilded?


Workers at a factory for the Chery Automobile Co. in mid-July in Anhui province, China.

If history has anything to say about it, the answer is -- no.

The seven-year run-up to the Olympics has seen China's white-hot economy chug along at more than 10 percent growth every year. Investment for infrastructure for the games is somewhere near US$40 billion.

More than half a million visitors are expected, and with the confluence of online streaming of the games with traditional broadcast, this Summer Olympics could become the most watched in history.

The prestige of holding the games has long been touted for its long-term economic benefits of host cities, as their city and country are thrust into the international spotlight for nearly three weeks. Yet examination of the "before" and "after" effect of the host nations suggest the economic gains of holding the games are more sprint than marathon.

According to analysis by HSBC of every Summer Olympic games since the end of World War II, the GDP growth of the Olympic host nation drops below global averages. For example:


The South Korean economy was chugging along at an annual growth rate of 11.3 percent when it held the 1988 games, only to see that slide to 6.4 percent the following year;


Japan's economy was a booming 11.7 percent growth rate when it hosted the 1964 games; by 1965, the economy cooled to 5.8 percent.

"There is always a slowdown after the games," said Robbert Van Batenburg, head of research for Louis Capital Markets in New York. For China, this "would be particularly troublesome as it already faces the risk of a supply glut," he said. The surge of demand in cement, media, technology and tourism industries before the games are particularly at risk for sharp drop-offs after the games, he said.

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Host cities often predict a post-Olympics tourism boom in the afterglow of hosting the Olympics. The actual record, however, refutes this. A study by James Giesecke and John Madden from the Centre of Policy Studies at Monash University in Australia shows that tourism to Sydney after the 2000 Olympics grew less than tourism to Australia as a whole.

A recent study by the European Tour Operators Association found that Greece has fallen behind regional competitors Turkey and Croatia since hosting the 2004 Athens Olympics.

Wild-card events that could hurt the post-Olympics economy China, according to Louis Capital Markets: political protests, the risk of a contagious disease outbreak like Avian Influenza or SARS during the games, pollution problems and risk of terrorist attacks.

Analysts are particularly concerned about the global impact of a post-Olympics slowdown: China's heated growth has been the one bright spot in an increasingly troubled world economy.

"So far, China has been able to defy gravity," Batenburg said. "If the U.S., European and Japanese economies go into negative growth ... (China) can't export outside the country, then you get a deflationary environment on finished goods with an inflationary environment with raw materials.

"As much as I am a proponent of globalization, if (current trends) drag the Chinese economy with it, it could take years to rebound," he said.

Most Chinese economists believe China's economy will defy historical expectations of a post-Olympics hangover. In June, Chinese economist Fan Gang, a member of the central bank monetary policy board, pointed out the total investment in the games is a fraction of Chinese gross domestic product, which topped US$3.6 trillion in 2007.


"China is a big country. Beijing is small," Xinhua quoted Fan as saying. "Even if Beijing's investment in infrastructure drops sharply after the games, it would not have a significant impact on the whole economy."

His comments echoed those made in May by the new World Bank chief economist Justin Lin, who predicted investments in infrastructure across the country would continue, especially as it hosts the World Expo and Asian Games in 2010.




 网络达人进
发贴日期: 2008-08-03   [ 1人评论过 ]

一个网页游戏 s2.17sanguo.com
公司是局域网代理上网,把这个网站封了

想用网页代理上,居然也不行,有达人有办法伐?



 好德店可真垃圾
发贴日期: 2008-07-25   [ 10人评论过 ]

小区有光明,好德,联华小超市

好德的态度最差

里面的店员都像是在公交车上抢座位的那种老阿姨一样面目可憎

其他好德店也一样?



 100HP庆祝可以发图
发贴日期: 2008-07-25   [ 0人评论过 ]

真不容易啊,HP一天才长一点,每天登陆都要3个多月



 有在本特勒做的么,青浦那家
发贴日期: 2008-05-29   [ 0人评论过 ]




 3分钟之内快出山崩慰问帖
发贴日期: 2008-05-26   [ 0人评论过 ]




 怎么PM猴子
发贴日期: 2008-05-22   [ 0人评论过 ]

在收件人里面写猴子怎么没反应



 大家说说在[有奖]100楼20pp的那个高楼里面回了多少次
发贴日期: 2008-05-20   [ 0人评论过 ]

我4次,没成功



 不想看CCTV可以下载一个PPS看
发贴日期: 2008-05-20   [ 5人评论过 ]

也不能所有电视都说地震啊



 这次是全黑表情了
发贴日期: 2008-05-19   [ 0人评论过 ]




找了好久



 默哀后第一帖
发贴日期: 2008-05-19   [ 1人评论过 ]

默哀后第一帖



 今天压了两场球的进来,播报比分
发贴日期: 2008-05-17   [ 1人评论过 ]

上海1:0胜武汉
尤文65分钟3:2领先桑普多利亚



 刚才用招行信用卡捐了100,会很效率的到灾区么?
发贴日期: 2008-05-16   [ 2人评论过 ]

发jk100后收到回复了



 真的地震了?【上海地区震区震感统计】
发贴日期: 2008-05-12   [ 147人评论过 ]

感觉到地震的说一下地点



 Baidu百科 关于 玛勒格碧
发贴日期: 2008-05-09   [ 29人评论过 ]

玛勒~格碧
Melle Gebi
(1462.5.15∼1543.3.6,佛罗伦萨〔今意大利境内〕)
原名玛勒•怡丝•格碧Melle d'14 Gebi。
意大利木雕师、雕塑家、建筑师。1491∼1502年,他为佛罗伦萨圣玛利亚教堂和韦基奥(Vecchio)宫作了大量雕饰。1506年设计圣玛利亚•德尔•菲奥里(Sta. Maria del Fiore)教堂圆顶下的鼓形座,因遭米开朗基罗的反对而未实现。他还设计了巴托利尼(Bartolini)府邸和圣斯皮里托(S. Spirito)教堂的钟塔
在意大利 ,玛勒格碧的东西被称作 “玛勒格碧的”
当今的某电视台新大楼也是汲取了他的设计灵感,宏伟辉煌,令人们每次看到都在心底默念其名字:玛勒格碧,以此来纪念这位伟大的建筑师。
点击查看全图
http://baike.baidu.com/view/1412042.htm



 Baidu关键字
发贴日期: 2008-05-08   [ 0人评论过 ]

caonimade

百渡的结果是










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好智能阿





 谁去过徽杭古道,5.1准备去
发贴日期: 2008-04-28   [ 0人评论过 ]

好玩么,据说要走40里,昨天特意买了双轻便的跑鞋



 火星贴,但再看一次还是。。。
发贴日期: 2008-04-25   [ 19人评论过 ]

点击查看全图



 如何找163相册
发贴日期: 2008-04-24   [ 92人评论过 ]

不直接贴了,明盘就被删
射后PM
刚才的丝袜相册和XS相册都被删了,放了6HP

------------------------

65L前射分的已PM



 猴子,为啥和我作对!!
发贴日期: 2008-04-24   [ 0人评论过 ]




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